DTN Midday Grain Comments 12/13 11:44
Grains Mixed at Midday
Wheat leads at midday, with soybeans struggling with some double-digit
By David Fiala
DTN Contributing Analyst
The U.S. stock market indices are mixed with the Dow futures up 60. The
interest rate products are mixed. The dollar index is 15 higher. Energies are
mixed with crude up $0.40. Livestock trade is mixed. Precious metals are flat
to higher with gold down $2.50.
Corn trade is flat to 1 cent higher with quiet midday trade with upside
momentum slowing. Corn basis looks to be flat in the near term with better
weather improving movement potential. Ethanol margins remain under pressure
with energies remaining at the lower end of the range and ethanol futures
remaining flat. The weekly export sales were in line with recent week at
903,200 metric tons. Milder weather should allow harvest to wrap up overall,
and allow for better movement. On the March chart the 20-, 50-, and 100-day
moving averages at $3.77-$3.79 is our chart support area with resistance at the
new high scored at $3.87 3/4.
Soybean trade is 9 to 11 cents lower with trade settling back into the range
as Chinese purchases are confirmed with more focus switching back to what it
would take to significantly reduce our carryout. Meal is $2.00 to $3.00 lower
and oil is 25 to 35 points lower. South America continues to make good progress
with early harvest approaching fast with a few dry pockets in Brazil drawing
more worry. Basis will provide signals on the quantity of nearby cash business
getting done with flat to slightly firmer trade so far this week. China
purchases look to be in the 1.5 million to 2.0 million metric tons the last
couple days with 1.13 confirmed on the daily wire today. The weekly export
sales were soft with 792,300 metric tons of beans, 50,500 of meal, and 5,900 of
oil. January support is at the 10-day at $9.10, which we are testing at midday.
Resistance is the 200-day at $9.37.
Wheat trade is 2 to 9 cents higher with improving exports and better chart
momentum and Kansas City trade leading the market. The dollar has firmed
slightly this morning with trade remaining near the upper end of the range.
Australian harvest will continue in the near term. North American winter wheat
is seeing milder weather. Russian/Ukrainian tensions have ramped up again. The
weekly export sales were strong at 754,100 metric tons showing some building
momentum On the March Kansas City chart support is at the 20-day at $5.00 that
we cleared last week with the 50-day at $5.18 the next round up which we are
above at midday with only the 100-day above the market now at $5.44.
David Fiala is a DTN contributing analyst and the President of FuturesOne
and a registered adviser
He can be reached at firstname.lastname@example.org
Follow him on Twitter @davidfiala
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